Horizon Kinetics JPN QWN OPR Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
15.33%
decreased by 0.55%
1 Week
15.76%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Month
16.82%
increased by 0.94%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 13, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 110% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0963 | 4.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0635 | 4.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8292 | 31.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0698 | 2.42** |
Persistence:
0.928
Half-life:
9 days
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