Horizon Kinetics JPN QWN OPR MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
16.26%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
16.68%
increased by 0.39%
1 Month
17.68%
increased by 1.39%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 13, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1111 | 2.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1041 | 4.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8184 | 28.25*** |
Persistence:
0.922
Half-life:
9 days
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