Horizon Kinetics JPN QWN OPR EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
21.60%
increased by 0.45%
1 Week
21.27%
increased by 0.12%
1 Month
20.20%
decreased by 0.95%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 13, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | -0.0020 | -0.03 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | -0.1654 | -2.41** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9776 | 504.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0582 | -0.34 |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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