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V-Lab

Horizon Kinetics JPN QWN OPR GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

22.46%

increased by 0.88%

1 Week

22.34%

increased by 0.76%

1 Month

21.93%

increased by 0.35%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Horizon Kinetics JPN QWN OPR GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 13, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.6177
2.79***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0303
4.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9709
128.81***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.9700
0.32

Persistence:

0.971

Half-life:

23 days