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V-Lab

Horizon Kinetics JPN QWN OPR GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

21.43%

decreased by 0.43%

1 Week

21.33%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Month

21.04%

decreased by 0.82%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Horizon Kinetics JPN QWN OPR GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 13, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.35 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5833
2.36**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0281
3.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9664
95.84***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.3491
0.29

Persistence:

0.966

Half-life:

20 days