V-Lab
Horizon Kinetics JPN QWN OPR GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
22.46%
increased by 0.88%
1 Week
22.34%
increased by 0.76%
1 Month
21.93%
increased by 0.35%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 13, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6177 | 2.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0303 | 4.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9709 | 128.81*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.9700 | 0.32 |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
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