Horizon Kinetics JPN QWN OPR AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
20.05%
decreased by 0.85%
1 Week
19.90%
decreased by 1.00%
1 Month
19.66%
decreased by 1.24%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 13, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2298 | 6.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0585 | 5.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7870 | 29.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2329 | 1.06 |
Persistence:
0.845
Half-life:
4 days
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