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V-Lab

Horizon Kinetics JPN QWN OPR AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

20.05%

decreased by 0.85%

1 Week

19.90%

decreased by 1.00%

1 Month

19.66%

decreased by 1.24%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Horizon Kinetics JPN QWN OPR AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 13, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2298
6.48***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0585
5.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7870
29.54***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2329
1.06

Persistence:

0.845

Half-life:

4 days