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V-Lab

Horizon Kinetics JPN QWN OPR Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

14.57%

increased by 0.82%

1 Week

15.12%

increased by 1.37%

1 Month

16.83%

increased by 3.08%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 10:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Horizon Kinetics JPN QWN OPR APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 13, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0566
3.40***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1436
11.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8329
39.34***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1472
1.34
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5000
2.80***

Persistence:

0.951

Half-life:

14 days