Horizon Kinetics JPN QWN OPR Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
14.57%
increased by 0.82%
1 Week
15.12%
increased by 1.37%
1 Month
16.83%
increased by 3.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 10:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 13, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0566 | 3.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1436 | 11.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8329 | 39.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1472 | 1.34 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 2.80*** |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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