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V-Lab

Horizon Kinetics JPN QWN OPR Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

19.43%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

19.43%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

19.43%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Horizon Kinetics JPN QWN OPR SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 13, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0569
3.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9358
3.73***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ15.9845
2.48**
γ2-11.1053
-2.37**

Persistence:

0.936

Half-life:

10 days