V-Lab
Horizon Kinetics JPN QWN OPR Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
25.43%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
25.43%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
25.43%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 13, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9670 | 3.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9381 | 3.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 3.5597 | 1.95* |
| γ2 | -5.1600 | -2.43** |
Persistence:
0.938
Half-life:
11 days
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