V-Lab
TOP Kingwin Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
98.78%
increased by 4.22%
1 Week
102.47%
increased by 7.91%
1 Month
114.97%
increased by 20.41%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 18, 2023 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 50-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.0280 | 0.60 |
| αARCH | 0.0925 | 1.05 |
| βGARCH | 0.9135 | 11.37*** |
| γleverage | -0.0395 | -0.55 |
0.986
Persistence50d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0280 | 0.60 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0925 | 1.05 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9135 | 11.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0395 | -0.55 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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