V-Lab
TOP Kingwin Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
109.23%
increased by 15.02%
1 Week
123.49%
increased by 29.28%
1 Month
156.33%
increased by 62.12%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 18, 2023 to Sep 11, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 46 | |
| αARCH | 0.2152 | 3.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6913 | 4.70*** |
| γleverage | -0.0524 | -0.32 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.53 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1955 | 0.48 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.7124 | 1.32 |
0.880
Persistence5d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2152 | 3.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6913 | 4.70*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0524 | -0.32 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.53 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1955 | 0.48 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7124 | 1.32 |
Persistence:
0.880
Half-life:
5 days
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