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V-Lab
V-Lab

TOP Kingwin Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

109.23%

increased by 15.02%

1 Week

123.49%

increased by 29.28%

1 Month

156.33%

increased by 62.12%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of TOP Kingwin Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 18, 2023 to Sep 11, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow46
αARCH0.2152
3.70***
βGARCH0.6913
4.70***
γleverage-0.0524
-0.32
λ₁tau intercept10.0000
0.53
λ₂forecast adj.0.1955
0.48
λ₃tau persistence0.7124
1.32

0.880

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2152
3.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6913
4.70***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0524
-0.32
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.53
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1955
0.48
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7124
1.32

Persistence:

0.880

Half-life:

5 days