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V-Lab

TOP Kingwin Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

83.66%

decreased by 9.89%

1 Week

97.02%

increased by 3.47%

1 Month

106.74%

increased by 13.19%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of TOP Kingwin Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 18, 2023 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.1654
3.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3285
2.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3491
2.62***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ110.0714
0.89
γ2-5.8129
-0.28
γ3-1.5220
-0.10
γ4-14.9510
-1.61
γ534.2450
4.57***
γ6-44.9479
-4.74***
γ733.1000
3.15***
γ8-11.0401
-1.43

Persistence:

0.678

Half-life:

2 days