V-Lab
TOP Kingwin Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
118.42%
increased by 26.08%
1 Week
119.06%
increased by 26.72%
1 Month
119.57%
increased by 27.23%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 18, 2023 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.1104 | 2.89*** |
| αARCH | 0.3029 | 2.79*** |
| βGARCH | 0.3656 | 2.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 9.8969 | 1.14 |
| γ2 | -4.8857 | -0.30 |
| γ3 | -5.7624 | -0.45 |
| γ4 | -5.6596 | -0.68 |
| γ5 | 22.7215 | 3.65*** |
| γ6 | -38.1126 | -5.33*** |
| γ7 | 34.7762 | 4.03*** |
| γ8 | -15.4008 | -2.43** |
0.668
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.1104 | 2.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3029 | 2.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3656 | 2.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 9.8969 | 1.14 |
| γ2 | -4.8857 | -0.30 |
| γ3 | -5.7624 | -0.45 |
| γ4 | -5.6596 | -0.68 |
| γ5 | 22.7215 | 3.65*** |
| γ6 | -38.1126 | -5.33*** |
| γ7 | 34.7762 | 4.03*** |
| γ8 | -15.4008 | -2.43** |
Persistence:
0.668
Half-life:
2 days
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