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V-Lab
V-Lab

TOP Kingwin Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

118.42%

increased by 26.08%

1 Week

119.06%

increased by 26.72%

1 Month

119.57%

increased by 27.23%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of TOP Kingwin Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 18, 2023 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst4.1104
2.89***
αARCH0.3029
2.79***
βGARCH0.3656
2.71***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ19.8969
1.14
γ2-4.8857
-0.30
γ3-5.7624
-0.45
γ4-5.6596
-0.68
γ522.7215
3.65***
γ6-38.1126
-5.33***
γ734.7762
4.03***
γ8-15.4008
-2.43**

0.668

Persistence

2d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.1104
2.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3029
2.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3656
2.71***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ19.8969
1.14
γ2-4.8857
-0.30
γ3-5.7624
-0.45
γ4-5.6596
-0.68
γ522.7215
3.65***
γ6-38.1126
-5.33***
γ734.7762
4.03***
γ8-15.4008
-2.43**

Persistence:

0.668

Half-life:

2 days