V-Lab
TOP Kingwin Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
83.66%
decreased by 9.89%
1 Week
97.02%
increased by 3.47%
1 Month
106.74%
increased by 13.19%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 18, 2023 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.1654 | 3.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3285 | 2.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3491 | 2.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 10.0714 | 0.89 |
| γ2 | -5.8129 | -0.28 |
| γ3 | -1.5220 | -0.10 |
| γ4 | -14.9510 | -1.61 |
| γ5 | 34.2450 | 4.57*** |
| γ6 | -44.9479 | -4.74*** |
| γ7 | 33.1000 | 3.15*** |
| γ8 | -11.0401 | -1.43 |
Persistence:
0.678
Half-life:
2 days
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