V-Lab
TOP Kingwin Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
148.00%
decreased by 6.17%
1 Week
177.87%
increased by 23.70%
1 Month
199.52%
increased by 45.35%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 18, 2023 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.2029 | 3.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3349 | 2.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3492 | 2.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 9.9937 | 0.88 |
| γ2 | -5.6649 | -0.27 |
| γ3 | -1.6633 | -0.11 |
| γ4 | -14.6573 | -1.57 |
| γ5 | 33.4077 | 4.30*** |
| γ6 | -42.7568 | -4.15*** |
| γ7 | 27.2621 | 2.25** |
| γ8 | 4.0776 | 0.27 |
Persistence:
0.684
Half-life:
2 days
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