V-Lab
TOP Kingwin Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
107.84%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
133.36%
increased by 25.52%
1 Month
175.77%
increased by 67.93%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 18, 2023 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -3.37) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 15.0000 | 8.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2974 | 14.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5982 | 44.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -3.3679 | -2.76*** |
Persistence:
0.896
Half-life:
6 days
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