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V-Lab

TOP Kingwin Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

107.84%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

133.36%

increased by 25.52%

1 Month

175.77%

increased by 67.93%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of TOP Kingwin Ltd AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 18, 2023 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -3.37) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

15.0000
8.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2974
14.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5982
44.53***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-3.3679
-2.76***

Persistence:

0.896

Half-life:

6 days