V-Lab
TOP Kingwin Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
111.88%
decreased by 13.48%
1 Week
120.70%
decreased by 4.66%
1 Month
131.07%
increased by 5.71%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 18, 2023 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. The volatility power δ = 0.55 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7651 | 7.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2913 | 20.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5293 | 23.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0285 | 0.98 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5527 | 8.80*** |
Persistence:
0.766
Half-life:
3 days
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