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V-Lab

TOP Kingwin Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

120.08%

decreased by 4.08%

1 Week

125.39%

increased by 1.23%

1 Month

144.60%

increased by 20.44%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of TOP Kingwin Ltd APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 18, 2023 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 142% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.27 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5523
1.97**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0866
5.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9134
38.74***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3345
-2.01**
δ

power

Transformation power

1.2675
8.77***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days