V-Lab
TOP Kingwin Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
120.08%
1 Week
125.39%
1 Month
144.60%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 18, 2023 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 142% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.27 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5523 | 1.97** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0866 | 5.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9134 | 38.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3345 | -2.01** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2675 | 8.77*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
Other TOP Kingwin Ltd Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on Equities