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ICE Brent Crude Oil GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

33.87%

decreased by 1.53%

1 Week

34.03%

decreased by 1.37%

1 Month

34.61%

decreased by 0.79%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE Brent Crude Oil GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 30, 2007 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 55-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0788
4.23***
αARCH0.0679
3.05***
βGARCH0.8970
65.80***
γleverage0.0452
1.12

0.987

Persistence

55d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0788
4.23***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0679
3.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8970
65.80***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0452
1.12

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

55 days