ICE Brent Crude Oil GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
33.87%
decreased by 1.53%
1 Week
34.03%
decreased by 1.37%
1 Month
34.61%
decreased by 0.79%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 2007 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 55-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0788 | 4.23*** |
| αARCH | 0.0679 | 3.05*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8970 | 65.80*** |
| γleverage | 0.0452 | 1.12 |
0.987
Persistence55d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0788 | 4.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0679 | 3.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8970 | 65.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0452 | 1.12 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
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