V-Lab
Vinpearl JSC MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
29.60%
decreased by 5.07%
1 Week
33.39%
decreased by 1.28%
1 Month
37.76%
increased by 3.09%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 21, 2008 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3574 | 26.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4562 | 16.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0303 | -2.64*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.4497 | 2.12** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1275 | 1.68* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8145 | 8.20*** |
Persistence:
0.798
Half-life:
3 days
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