Vinpearl JSC EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
32.89%
decreased by 1.94%
1 Week
36.03%
increased by 1.20%
1 Month
40.68%
increased by 5.85%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 21, 2008 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3919 | 13.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4389 | 26.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8043 | 54.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0178 | 1.28 |
Persistence:
0.804
Half-life:
3 days
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