Vinpearl JSC GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
29.27%
decreased by 1.72%
1 Week
32.89%
increased by 1.90%
1 Month
39.73%
increased by 8.74%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 21, 2008 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8246 | 11.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2697 | 11.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6384 | 43.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0118 | -0.28 |
Persistence:
0.902
Half-life:
7 days
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