Skip to main content
V-Lab

Vinpearl JSC AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

28.52%

decreased by 1.93%

1 Week

32.73%

increased by 2.28%

1 Month

40.05%

increased by 9.60%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Vinpearl JSC AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 21, 2008 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.13) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9221
14.23***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2834
32.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6064
46.25***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1298
-2.80***

Persistence:

0.890

Half-life:

6 days