Vinpearl JSC AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
28.52%
decreased by 1.93%
1 Week
32.73%
increased by 2.28%
1 Month
40.05%
increased by 9.60%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 21, 2008 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.13) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9221 | 14.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2834 | 32.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6064 | 46.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1298 | -2.80*** |
Persistence:
0.890
Half-life:
6 days
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