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V-Lab

Vinpearl JSC GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

27.60%

decreased by 2.57%

1 Week

30.01%

decreased by 0.16%

1 Month

37.23%

increased by 7.06%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Vinpearl JSC GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 21, 2008 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 33 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 33 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

16.7045
3.85***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2238
20.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9795
152.97***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.9888
4.94***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

33 days