Vinpearl JSC GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
27.60%
decreased by 2.57%
1 Week
30.01%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Month
37.23%
increased by 7.06%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 21, 2008 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 33 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 33 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 16.7045 | 3.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2238 | 20.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9795 | 152.97*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.9888 | 4.94*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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