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V-Lab

Vinpearl JSC GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

26.68%

decreased by 3.48%

1 Week

29.16%

decreased by 1.00%

1 Month

36.44%

increased by 6.28%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Vinpearl JSC GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 21, 2008 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 30 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 30 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

15.1147
3.79***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2176
18.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9771
132.91***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.9939
4.58***

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

30 days