V-Lab
Vinpearl JSC GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
26.68%
decreased by 3.48%
1 Week
29.16%
decreased by 1.00%
1 Month
36.44%
increased by 6.28%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 21, 2008 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 30 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 30 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 15.1147 | 3.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2176 | 18.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9771 | 132.91*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.9939 | 4.58*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
Other Vinpearl JSC Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on International Equities