Vinpearl JSC Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
28.93%
decreased by 1.74%
1 Week
32.68%
increased by 2.01%
1 Month
38.98%
increased by 8.31%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 21, 2008 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3808 | 7.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2740 | 6.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6053 | 9.34*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0695 | 1.31 |
Persistence:
0.879
Half-life:
5 days
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