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V-Lab

Vinpearl JSC APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

30.89%

decreased by 1.98%

1 Week

34.40%

increased by 1.53%

1 Month

40.06%

increased by 7.19%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Vinpearl JSC APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 21, 2008 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. The volatility power δ = 1.33 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5750
9.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2575
26.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6371
42.23***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0185
-1.53
δ

power

Transformation power

1.3305
11.01***

Persistence:

0.851

Half-life:

4 days