Vinpearl JSC APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
30.89%
decreased by 1.98%
1 Week
34.40%
increased by 1.53%
1 Month
40.06%
increased by 7.19%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 21, 2008 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. The volatility power δ = 1.33 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5750 | 9.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2575 | 26.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6371 | 42.23*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0185 | -1.53 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.3305 | 11.01*** |
Persistence:
0.851
Half-life:
4 days
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