WisdomTree Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Bullish Fund GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
4.33%
increased by 0.04%
1 Week
4.41%
increased by 0.12%
1 Month
4.71%
increased by 0.42%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 2013 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.15 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 48-day half-lifev = 7.15 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 0.1868 | 2.24** |
| αscore | 0.0521 | 6.43*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9856 | 130.75*** |
| νDF | 7.1538 | 1.06 |
0.986
Persistence48d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 0.1868 | 2.24** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0521 | 6.43*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9856 | 130.75*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.1538 | 1.06 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
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