WisdomTree Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Bullish Fund MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
4.54%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
4.82%
increased by 0.19%
1 Month
5.00%
increased by 0.37%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 2013 to Oct 23, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.0944 | 1.88* |
| βGARCH | 0.6195 | 6.16*** |
| γleverage | 0.0362 | 0.70 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0035 | 2.02** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0603 | 2.84*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9205 | 31.72*** |
0.732
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0944 | 1.88* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6195 | 6.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0362 | 0.70 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0035 | 2.02** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0603 | 2.84*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9205 | 31.72*** |
Persistence:
0.732
Half-life:
2 days
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