V-Lab
WisdomTree Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Bullish Fund Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
5.36%
increased by 0.09%
1 Week
5.43%
increased by 0.16%
1 Month
5.65%
increased by 0.38%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 2013 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9006 | 7.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0700 | 4.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9055 | 46.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0046 | -0.86 |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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