V-Lab
US Dollar to Euro Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
4.14%
increased by 0.02%
1 Week
4.16%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
4.24%
increased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1999 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 190 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~190 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1259 | 9.73*** |
| αARCH | 0.0235 | 7.16*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9729 | 246.87*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0002 | 1.51 |
0.996
Persistence190d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1259 | 9.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0235 | 7.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9729 | 246.87*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0002 | 1.51 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
190 days
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