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V-Lab
V-Lab

US Dollar to Euro Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

4.09%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

4.10%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Month

4.15%

increased by 0.02%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:59 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Euro SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1999 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 218 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~218 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9858
7.94***
αARCH0.0233
7.21***
βGARCH0.9736
255.93***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0007
-0.98

0.997

Persistence

218d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9858
7.94***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0233
7.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9736
255.93***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0007
-0.98

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

218 days