V-Lab
US Dollar to Euro Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
3.90%
increased by 0.01%
1 Week
3.92%
increased by 0.03%
1 Month
3.97%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1999 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 219 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~219 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9825 | 7.88*** |
| αARCH | 0.0234 | 7.22*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9735 | 254.97*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0008 | -0.99 |
0.997
Persistence219d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9825 | 7.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0234 | 7.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9735 | 254.97*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0008 | -0.99 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
219 days
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