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V-Lab
V-Lab

US Dollar to Euro Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

3.90%

increased by 0.01%

1 Week

3.92%

increased by 0.03%

1 Month

3.97%

increased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Euro SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1999 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 219 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~219 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9825
7.88***
αARCH0.0234
7.22***
βGARCH0.9735
254.97***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0008
-0.99

0.997

Persistence

219d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9825
7.88***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0234
7.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9735
254.97***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0008
-0.99

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

219 days