V-Lab
US Dollar to Canadian Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
4.08%
increased by 0.07%
1 Week
4.10%
increased by 0.09%
1 Month
4.20%
increased by 0.19%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 158 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~158 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8849 | 7.52*** |
| αARCH | 0.0309 | 7.41*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9647 | 211.93*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0001 | -1.16 |
0.996
Persistence158d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8849 | 7.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0309 | 7.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9647 | 211.93*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0001 | -1.16 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
158 days
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