V-Lab
US Dollar to Canadian Dollar Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
4.27%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
4.28%
increased by 0.00%
1 Month
4.34%
increased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 139 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~139 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8014 | 6.32*** |
| αARCH | 0.0311 | 7.30*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9639 | 204.60*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0006 | -1.44 |
0.995
Persistence139d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8014 | 6.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0311 | 7.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9639 | 204.60*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0006 | -1.44 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
139 days
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