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S&P 500 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

16.51%

increased by 4.53%

1 Week

16.52%

increased by 4.54%

1 Month

16.56%

increased by 4.58%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 12:29 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P 500 Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0215
5.16***
αARCH0.0032
0.33
βGARCH0.8977
104.53***
γleverage0.1599
7.48***

0.981

Persistence

36d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0215
5.16***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0032
0.33
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8977
104.53***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1599
7.48***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days