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S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

34.73%

increased by 0.87%

1 Week

34.80%

increased by 0.94%

1 Month

35.07%

increased by 1.21%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 111 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.27 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~111 daysv = 7.27 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run6.3433
1.57
αscore0.0632
13.33***
βpersistence0.9938
245.01***
νDF7.2691
2.00**

0.994

Persistence

111d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

6.3433
1.57
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0632
13.33***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9938
245.01***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.2691
2.00**

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

111 days