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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026

1 Day

36.03%

decreased by 1.34%

1 Week

36.08%

decreased by 1.29%

1 Month

36.28%

decreased by 1.09%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/14/2024

to

10/14/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 112 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.26 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~112 daysv = 7.26 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst6.3607
1.57
αARCH0.0631
13.33***
βGARCH0.9938
245.93***
νDF7.2647
2.00**

0.994

Persistence

112d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

6.3607
1.57
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0631
13.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9938
245.93***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.2647
2.00**

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

112 days