S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
36.03%
1 Week
36.08%
1 Month
36.28%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 112 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.26 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 6.3607 | 1.57 |
| αARCH | 0.0631 | 13.33*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9938 | 245.93*** |
| νDF | 7.2647 | 2.00** |
0.994
Persistence112d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.3607 | 1.57 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0631 | 13.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9938 | 245.93*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.2647 | 2.00** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
112 days
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