V-Lab
MSCI NUAM Peru General Index Gross Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
20.75%
increased by 6.42%
1 Week
20.91%
increased by 6.58%
1 Month
21.34%
increased by 7.01%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:56 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 3, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4778 | 7.16*** |
| αARCH | 0.2041 | 12.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7441 | 45.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0210 | -2.41** |
| γ2 | 0.0512 | 3.86*** |
| γ3 | -0.0538 | -5.53*** |
| γ4 | 0.0382 | 4.73*** |
| γ5 | -0.0190 | -3.45*** |
0.948
Persistence13d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4778 | 7.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2041 | 12.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7441 | 45.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0210 | -2.41** |
| γ2 | 0.0512 | 3.86*** |
| γ3 | -0.0538 | -5.53*** |
| γ4 | 0.0382 | 4.73*** |
| γ5 | -0.0190 | -3.45*** |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
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