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MSCI NUAM Peru General Index Gross Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, November 6th, 2026

1 Day

27.39%

increased by 1.61%

1 Week

26.97%

increased by 1.19%

1 Month

25.74%

decreased by 0.04%

Analysis last updated: Friday, November 6, 2026 at 07:40 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/05/2024

to

11/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI NUAM Peru General Index Gross S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 29, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.4694
7.20***
αARCH0.2025
12.44***
βGARCH0.7453
45.31***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-0.0208
-2.43**
γ20.0509
3.91***
γ3-0.0542
-5.67***
γ40.0397
4.98***
γ5-0.0207
-3.79***

0.948

Persistence

13d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4694
7.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2025
12.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7453
45.31***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-0.0208
-2.43**
γ20.0509
3.91***
γ3-0.0542
-5.67***
γ40.0397
4.98***
γ5-0.0207
-3.79***

Persistence:

0.948

Half-life:

13 days