V-Lab
MSCI NUAM Peru General Index Gross Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026
1 Day
19.71%
decreased by 2.08%
1 Week
20.00%
decreased by 1.79%
1 Month
20.80%
decreased by 0.99%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:08 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4928 | 7.22*** |
| αARCH | 0.2050 | 12.50*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7431 | 45.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0204 | -2.37** |
| γ2 | 0.0505 | 3.83*** |
| γ3 | -0.0537 | -5.55*** |
| γ4 | 0.0384 | 4.79*** |
| γ5 | -0.0194 | -3.54*** |
0.948
Persistence13d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4928 | 7.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2050 | 12.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7431 | 45.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0204 | -2.37** |
| γ2 | 0.0505 | 3.83*** |
| γ3 | -0.0537 | -5.55*** |
| γ4 | 0.0384 | 4.79*** |
| γ5 | -0.0194 | -3.54*** |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
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