V-Lab
MSCI NUAM Peru General Index Gross Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
23.86%
increased by 5.28%
1 Week
24.92%
increased by 6.34%
1 Month
27.49%
increased by 8.91%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:56 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 3, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1541 | 3.54*** |
| αARCH | 0.2030 | 12.20*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7282 | 39.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1138 | -1.60 |
| γ2 | 0.1720 | 1.83* |
| γ3 | -0.1118 | -2.29** |
| γ4 | 0.1450 | 3.17*** |
| γ5 | -0.1378 | -3.15*** |
| γ6 | 0.0341 | 0.79 |
| γ7 | -0.0140 | -0.34 |
| γ8 | 0.1224 | 2.62*** |
| γ9 | -0.2029 | -3.56*** |
| γ10 | 0.2523 | 3.68*** |
0.931
Persistence10d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1541 | 3.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2030 | 12.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7282 | 39.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1138 | -1.60 |
| γ2 | 0.1720 | 1.83* |
| γ3 | -0.1118 | -2.29** |
| γ4 | 0.1450 | 3.17*** |
| γ5 | -0.1378 | -3.15*** |
| γ6 | 0.0341 | 0.79 |
| γ7 | -0.0140 | -0.34 |
| γ8 | 0.1224 | 2.62*** |
| γ9 | -0.2029 | -3.56*** |
| γ10 | 0.2523 | 3.68*** |
Persistence:
0.931
Half-life:
10 days
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