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MSCI NUAM Peru General Index Gross Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

23.86%

increased by 5.28%

1 Week

24.92%

increased by 6.34%

1 Month

27.49%

increased by 8.91%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:56 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI NUAM Peru General Index Gross SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 3, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1541
3.54***
αARCH0.2030
12.20***
βGARCH0.7282
39.67***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.1138
-1.60
γ20.1720
1.83*
γ3-0.1118
-2.29**
γ40.1450
3.17***
γ5-0.1378
-3.15***
γ60.0341
0.79
γ7-0.0140
-0.34
γ80.1224
2.62***
γ9-0.2029
-3.56***
γ100.2523
3.68***

0.931

Persistence

10d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1541
3.54***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2030
12.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7282
39.67***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.1138
-1.60
γ20.1720
1.83*
γ3-0.1118
-2.29**
γ40.1450
3.17***
γ5-0.1378
-3.15***
γ60.0341
0.79
γ7-0.0140
-0.34
γ80.1224
2.62***
γ9-0.2029
-3.56***
γ100.2523
3.68***

Persistence:

0.931

Half-life:

10 days