Dow Jones Composite Average Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026
1 Day
10.55%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Week
10.84%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
11.77%
increased by 0.87%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 32 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9361 | 9.40*** |
| αARCH | 0.0987 | 9.82*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8796 | 81.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0000 | -0.05 |
0.978
Persistence32d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9361 | 9.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0987 | 9.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8796 | 81.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0000 | -0.05 |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
32 days
Other Dow Jones Composite Average Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices