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Dow Jones Composite Average Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026

1 Day

10.05%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Week

10.28%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Month

10.98%

increased by 0.58%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/12/2024

to

10/12/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Composite Average SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3513
7.07***
αARCH0.0998
9.37***
βGARCH0.8646
67.34***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ10.0644
5.39***
γ2-0.0952
-5.02***
γ30.0456
3.32***
γ4-0.0307
-2.39**
γ50.0412
2.51**
γ6-0.0592
-2.40**

0.964

Persistence

19d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3513
7.07***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0998
9.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8646
67.34***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ10.0644
5.39***
γ2-0.0952
-5.02***
γ30.0456
3.32***
γ4-0.0307
-2.39**
γ50.0412
2.51**
γ6-0.0592
-2.40**

Persistence:

0.964

Half-life:

19 days