Matsuda Sangyo Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
57.98%
decreased by 2.37%
1 Week
57.48%
decreased by 2.87%
1 Month
57.05%
decreased by 3.30%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 28, 1995 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 76% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 76% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.1166 | 4.74*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6569 | 17.01*** |
| γleverage | 0.0888 | 2.21** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0156 | 2.19** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0271 | 5.14*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9712 | 177.94*** |
0.818
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1166 | 4.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6569 | 17.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0888 | 2.21** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0156 | 2.19** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0271 | 5.14*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9712 | 177.94*** |
Persistence:
0.818
Half-life:
3 days
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