Matsuda Sangyo Co Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
67.03%
increased by 0.45%
1 Week
69.55%
increased by 2.97%
1 Month
74.35%
increased by 7.77%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 11:48 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 28, 1995 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4867 | 4.24*** |
| αARCH | 0.1434 | 7.93*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7407 | 27.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1080 | -1.21 |
| γ2 | -0.0636 | -0.51 |
| γ3 | 0.4072 | 5.44*** |
| γ4 | -0.4021 | -5.20*** |
| γ5 | 0.1742 | 2.11** |
| γ6 | 0.0230 | 0.32 |
| γ7 | 0.0006 | 0.01 |
| γ8 | -0.0043 | -0.07 |
| γ9 | -0.1320 | -1.77* |
| γ10 | 0.3959 | 3.53*** |
0.884
Persistence6d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4867 | 4.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1434 | 7.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7407 | 27.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1080 | -1.21 |
| γ2 | -0.0636 | -0.51 |
| γ3 | 0.4072 | 5.44*** |
| γ4 | -0.4021 | -5.20*** |
| γ5 | 0.1742 | 2.11** |
| γ6 | 0.0230 | 0.32 |
| γ7 | 0.0006 | 0.01 |
| γ8 | -0.0043 | -0.07 |
| γ9 | -0.1320 | -1.77* |
| γ10 | 0.3959 | 3.53*** |
Persistence:
0.884
Half-life:
6 days
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