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V-Lab

Matsuda Sangyo Co Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

67.03%

increased by 0.45%

1 Week

69.55%

increased by 2.97%

1 Month

74.35%

increased by 7.77%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 11:48 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Matsuda Sangyo Co Ltd SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 28, 1995 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.4867
4.24***
αARCH0.1434
7.93***
βGARCH0.7407
27.15***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.1080
-1.21
γ2-0.0636
-0.51
γ30.4072
5.44***
γ4-0.4021
-5.20***
γ50.1742
2.11**
γ60.0230
0.32
γ70.0006
0.01
γ8-0.0043
-0.07
γ9-0.1320
-1.77*
γ100.3959
3.53***

0.884

Persistence

6d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4867
4.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1434
7.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7407
27.15***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.1080
-1.21
γ2-0.0636
-0.51
γ30.4072
5.44***
γ4-0.4021
-5.20***
γ50.1742
2.11**
γ60.0230
0.32
γ70.0006
0.01
γ8-0.0043
-0.07
γ9-0.1320
-1.77*
γ100.3959
3.53***

Persistence:

0.884

Half-life:

6 days