Matsuda Sangyo Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
50.08%
decreased by 5.28%
1 Week
48.19%
decreased by 7.17%
1 Month
43.44%
decreased by 11.92%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 07:41 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 28, 1995 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4829 | 3.69*** |
| αARCH | 0.1403 | 8.21*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7723 | 33.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1311 | -1.31 |
| γ2 | -0.0247 | -0.18 |
| γ3 | 0.3771 | 4.60*** |
| γ4 | -0.3767 | -4.43*** |
| γ5 | 0.1568 | 1.74* |
| γ6 | 0.0288 | 0.38 |
| γ7 | 0.0139 | 0.22 |
| γ8 | -0.0567 | -0.85 |
| γ9 | 0.0065 | 0.09 |
| γ10 | -0.0015 | -0.03 |
0.913
Persistence8d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4829 | 3.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1403 | 8.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7723 | 33.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1311 | -1.31 |
| γ2 | -0.0247 | -0.18 |
| γ3 | 0.3771 | 4.60*** |
| γ4 | -0.3767 | -4.43*** |
| γ5 | 0.1568 | 1.74* |
| γ6 | 0.0288 | 0.38 |
| γ7 | 0.0139 | 0.22 |
| γ8 | -0.0567 | -0.85 |
| γ9 | 0.0065 | 0.09 |
| γ10 | -0.0015 | -0.03 |
Persistence:
0.913
Half-life:
8 days
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