Matsuda Sangyo Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
47.23%
increased by 10.35%
1 Week
45.63%
increased by 8.75%
1 Month
41.65%
increased by 4.77%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 28, 1995 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4754 | 3.60*** |
| αARCH | 0.1394 | 8.20*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7738 | 33.46*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1361 | -1.33 |
| γ2 | -0.0192 | -0.14 |
| γ3 | 0.3764 | 4.56*** |
| γ4 | -0.3755 | -4.40*** |
| γ5 | 0.1542 | 1.71* |
| γ6 | 0.0311 | 0.41 |
| γ7 | 0.0123 | 0.19 |
| γ8 | -0.0537 | -0.80 |
| γ9 | 0.0016 | 0.02 |
| γ10 | 0.0026 | 0.04 |
0.913
Persistence8d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4754 | 3.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1394 | 8.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7738 | 33.46*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1361 | -1.33 |
| γ2 | -0.0192 | -0.14 |
| γ3 | 0.3764 | 4.56*** |
| γ4 | -0.3755 | -4.40*** |
| γ5 | 0.1542 | 1.71* |
| γ6 | 0.0311 | 0.41 |
| γ7 | 0.0123 | 0.19 |
| γ8 | -0.0537 | -0.80 |
| γ9 | 0.0016 | 0.02 |
| γ10 | 0.0026 | 0.04 |
Persistence:
0.913
Half-life:
8 days
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