V-Lab
Matsuda Sangyo Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
55.27%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Week
52.60%
decreased by 3.04%
1 Month
45.79%
decreased by 9.85%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 28, 1995 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4763 | 3.62*** |
| αARCH | 0.1394 | 8.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7729 | 33.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1343 | -1.31 |
| γ2 | -0.0234 | -0.17 |
| γ3 | 0.3799 | 4.58*** |
| γ4 | -0.3753 | -4.38*** |
| γ5 | 0.1507 | 1.68* |
| γ6 | 0.0337 | 0.45 |
| γ7 | 0.0109 | 0.17 |
| γ8 | -0.0492 | -0.72 |
| γ9 | -0.0068 | -0.09 |
| γ10 | 0.0097 | 0.17 |
0.912
Persistence8d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4763 | 3.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1394 | 8.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7729 | 33.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1343 | -1.31 |
| γ2 | -0.0234 | -0.17 |
| γ3 | 0.3799 | 4.58*** |
| γ4 | -0.3753 | -4.38*** |
| γ5 | 0.1507 | 1.68* |
| γ6 | 0.0337 | 0.45 |
| γ7 | 0.0109 | 0.17 |
| γ8 | -0.0492 | -0.72 |
| γ9 | -0.0068 | -0.09 |
| γ10 | 0.0097 | 0.17 |
Persistence:
0.912
Half-life:
8 days
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