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Matsuda Sangyo Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

47.23%

increased by 10.35%

1 Week

45.63%

increased by 8.75%

1 Month

41.65%

increased by 4.77%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Matsuda Sangyo Co Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 28, 1995 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.4754
3.60***
αARCH0.1394
8.20***
βGARCH0.7738
33.46***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.1361
-1.33
γ2-0.0192
-0.14
γ30.3764
4.56***
γ4-0.3755
-4.40***
γ50.1542
1.71*
γ60.0311
0.41
γ70.0123
0.19
γ8-0.0537
-0.80
γ90.0016
0.02
γ100.0026
0.04

0.913

Persistence

8d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4754
3.60***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1394
8.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7738
33.46***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.1361
-1.33
γ2-0.0192
-0.14
γ30.3764
4.56***
γ4-0.3755
-4.40***
γ50.1542
1.71*
γ60.0311
0.41
γ70.0123
0.19
γ8-0.0537
-0.80
γ90.0016
0.02
γ100.0026
0.04

Persistence:

0.913

Half-life:

8 days