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V-Lab

Matsuda Sangyo Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

55.27%

decreased by 0.37%

1 Week

52.60%

decreased by 3.04%

1 Month

45.79%

decreased by 9.85%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Matsuda Sangyo Co Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 28, 1995 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.4763
3.62***
αARCH0.1394
8.18***
βGARCH0.7729
33.05***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.1343
-1.31
γ2-0.0234
-0.17
γ30.3799
4.58***
γ4-0.3753
-4.38***
γ50.1507
1.68*
γ60.0337
0.45
γ70.0109
0.17
γ8-0.0492
-0.72
γ9-0.0068
-0.09
γ100.0097
0.17

0.912

Persistence

8d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4763
3.62***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1394
8.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7729
33.05***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.1343
-1.31
γ2-0.0234
-0.17
γ30.3799
4.58***
γ4-0.3753
-4.38***
γ50.1507
1.68*
γ60.0337
0.45
γ70.0109
0.17
γ8-0.0492
-0.72
γ9-0.0068
-0.09
γ100.0097
0.17

Persistence:

0.912

Half-life:

8 days