Matsuda Sangyo Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
61.68%
1 Week
61.58%
1 Month
61.20%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 28, 1995 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 123 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.38 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 10.7501 | 0.94 |
| αARCH | 0.0682 | 17.36*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9944 | 174.42*** |
| νDF | 3.3845 | 9.07*** |
0.994
Persistence123d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 10.7501 | 0.94 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0682 | 17.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9944 | 174.42*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.3845 | 9.07*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
123 days
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