V-Lab
Matsuda Sangyo Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
73.59%
1 Week
73.38%
1 Month
72.57%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 28, 1995 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 121 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.37 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 10.6963 | 0.93 |
| αARCH | 0.0684 | 17.20*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9943 | 170.02*** |
| νDF | 3.3719 | 9.01*** |
0.994
Persistence121d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 10.6963 | 0.93 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0684 | 17.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9943 | 170.02*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.3719 | 9.01*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
121 days
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