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Matsuda Sangyo Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

61.42%

decreased by 3.92%

1 Week

61.31%

decreased by 4.03%

1 Month

60.89%

decreased by 4.45%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 07:41 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Matsuda Sangyo Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 28, 1995 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 123 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.38 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~123 daysv = 3.38 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run10.7501
0.94
αscore0.0682
17.36***
βpersistence0.9944
174.42***
νDF3.3845
9.07***

0.994

Persistence

123d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

10.7501
0.94
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0682
17.36***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9944
174.42***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.3845
9.07***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

123 days