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Matsuda Sangyo Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

61.68%

increased by 3.07%

1 Week

61.58%

increased by 2.97%

1 Month

61.20%

increased by 2.59%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Matsuda Sangyo Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 28, 1995 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 123 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.38 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~123 daysv = 3.38 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst10.7501
0.94
αARCH0.0682
17.36***
βGARCH0.9944
174.42***
νDF3.3845
9.07***

0.994

Persistence

123d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

10.7501
0.94
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0682
17.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9944
174.42***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.3845
9.07***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

123 days