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Matsuda Sangyo Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

50.28%

increased by 5.43%

1 Week

50.33%

increased by 5.48%

1 Month

50.52%

increased by 5.67%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Matsuda Sangyo Co Ltd APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 28, 1995 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 94 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.73 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~94 daysδ = 1.73 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0604
3.63***
αARCH0.0867
7.48***
βGARCH0.9133
99.55***
γleverage0.0424
0.65
δpower1.7288
7.49***

0.993

Persistence

94d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0604
3.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0867
7.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9133
99.55***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0424
0.65
δ

power

Transformation power

1.7288
7.49***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

94 days