Matsuda Sangyo Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
50.28%
1 Week
50.33%
1 Month
50.52%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 28, 1995 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 94 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.73 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0604 | 3.63*** |
| αARCH | 0.0867 | 7.48*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9133 | 99.55*** |
| γleverage | 0.0424 | 0.65 |
| δpower | 1.7288 | 7.49*** |
0.993
Persistence94d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0604 | 3.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0867 | 7.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9133 | 99.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0424 | 0.65 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7288 | 7.49*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
94 days
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