Matsuda Sangyo Co Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
48.43%
decreased by 2.30%
1 Week
48.54%
decreased by 2.19%
1 Month
48.99%
decreased by 1.74%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 11:47 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 28, 1995 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 109 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~109 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0719 | 3.90*** |
| αARCH | 0.0961 | 10.04*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8975 | 102.89*** |
| γleverage | 0.3212 | 1.45 |
0.994
Persistence109d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0719 | 3.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0961 | 10.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8975 | 102.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3212 | 1.45 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
109 days
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