Matsuda Sangyo Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
50.49%
increased by 5.34%
1 Week
50.56%
increased by 5.41%
1 Month
50.81%
increased by 5.66%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 08:15 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 28, 1995 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~138 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0638 | 4.44*** |
| αARCH | 0.0770 | 5.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9124 | 105.61*** |
| γleverage | 0.0112 | 0.41 |
0.995
Persistence138d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0638 | 4.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0770 | 5.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9124 | 105.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0112 | 0.41 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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