V-Lab
Matsuda Sangyo Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
63.35%
increased by 0.11%
1 Week
63.30%
increased by 0.06%
1 Month
63.08%
decreased by 0.16%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 28, 1995 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 142 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~142 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0635 | 4.41*** |
| αARCH | 0.0770 | 5.58*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9125 | 105.70*** |
| γleverage | 0.0112 | 0.41 |
0.995
Persistence142d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0635 | 4.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0770 | 5.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9125 | 105.70*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0112 | 0.41 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
142 days
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