Matsuda Sangyo Co Ltd Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
44.41%
decreased by 1.15%
1 Week
44.52%
decreased by 1.04%
1 Month
44.95%
decreased by 0.61%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 11:47 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 28, 1995 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1378 trading days (~5.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~1378 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0230 | 2.22** |
| αARCH | 0.0793 | 4.08*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9222 | 59.63*** |
| γleverage | -0.0040 | -0.11 |
0.999
Persistence1378d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0230 | 2.22** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0793 | 4.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9222 | 59.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0040 | -0.11 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1378 days
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