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V-Lab

Fic Global Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

49.28%

increased by 1.36%

1 Week

54.73%

increased by 6.81%

1 Month

56.42%

increased by 8.50%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 04:58 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Fic Global Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2004 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 74% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3069
21.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.1864
6.66***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1307
-5.99***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.5371
0.58
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2402
0.93
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7214
2.25**

Persistence:

0.428

Half-life:

1 days