V-Lab
Fic Global Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
49.28%
1 Week
54.73%
1 Month
56.42%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 04:58 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2004 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 74% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3069 | 21.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1864 | 6.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1307 | -5.99*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.5371 | 0.58 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2402 | 0.93 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7214 | 2.25** |
Persistence:
0.428
Half-life:
1 days
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