V-Lab
Fic Global Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
77.87%
decreased by 7.27%
1 Week
75.92%
decreased by 9.22%
1 Month
69.93%
decreased by 15.21%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:55 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2004 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8136 | 3.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1606 | 6.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7890 | 24.41*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0746 | 0.31 |
| γ2 | -0.0771 | -0.17 |
| γ3 | -0.2773 | -0.57 |
| γ4 | 0.4858 | 1.16 |
| γ5 | -0.2478 | -0.75 |
| γ6 | 0.2092 | 0.45 |
| γ7 | -0.5484 | -0.90 |
| γ8 | 0.8545 | 1.45 |
| γ9 | -0.7625 | -2.02** |
| γ10 | 0.3468 | 1.84* |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
13 days
Other Fic Global Inc Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities