V-Lab
Fic Global Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
45.64%
decreased by 1.30%
1 Week
46.31%
decreased by 0.63%
1 Month
48.17%
increased by 1.23%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 04:58 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2004 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8084 | 3.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1608 | 6.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7870 | 24.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0781 | 0.33 |
| γ2 | -0.0839 | -0.19 |
| γ3 | -0.2723 | -0.56 |
| γ4 | 0.4848 | 1.17 |
| γ5 | -0.2543 | -0.77 |
| γ6 | 0.2249 | 0.47 |
| γ7 | -0.5660 | -0.93 |
| γ8 | 0.8700 | 1.50 |
| γ9 | -0.7848 | -2.12** |
| γ10 | 0.3703 | 1.98** |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
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