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V-Lab

Fic Global Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

77.87%

decreased by 7.27%

1 Week

75.92%

decreased by 9.22%

1 Month

69.93%

decreased by 15.21%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:55 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Fic Global Inc S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2004 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8136
3.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1606
6.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7890
24.41***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0746
0.31
γ2-0.0771
-0.17
γ3-0.2773
-0.57
γ40.4858
1.16
γ5-0.2478
-0.75
γ60.2092
0.45
γ7-0.5484
-0.90
γ80.8545
1.45
γ9-0.7625
-2.02**
γ100.3468
1.84*

Persistence:

0.950

Half-life:

13 days