V-Lab
Fic Global Inc AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
78.06%
decreased by 4.90%
1 Week
77.48%
decreased by 5.48%
1 Month
75.38%
decreased by 7.58%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:54 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2004 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.31) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2349 | 13.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1056 | 16.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8767 | 121.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3084 | -3.21*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
39 days
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