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V-Lab

Fic Global Inc AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

78.06%

decreased by 4.90%

1 Week

77.48%

decreased by 5.48%

1 Month

75.38%

decreased by 7.58%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:54 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Fic Global Inc AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2004 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.31) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2349
13.03***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1056
16.54***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8767
121.36***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3084
-3.21***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

39 days