V-Lab
Fic Global Inc Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
66.34%
1 Week
66.03%
1 Month
64.84%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2004 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 26% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 2.39 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1817 | 12.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0577 | 25.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9204 | 372.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0491 | -4.05*** |
δ power Transformation power | 2.3912 | 39.05*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
59 days
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