V-Lab
Jiangsu Ankura Intelligent Power Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
57.28%
increased by 1.24%
1 Week
61.19%
increased by 5.15%
1 Month
67.24%
increased by 11.20%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 07:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 2017 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9185 | 3.47*** |
| αARCH | 0.1176 | 4.07*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7315 | 12.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.1126 | -0.35 |
| γ2 | 0.2905 | 0.70 |
| γ3 | -0.4997 | -2.75*** |
| γ4 | 0.7376 | 4.47*** |
| γ5 | -0.6281 | -5.19*** |
0.849
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9185 | 3.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1176 | 4.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7315 | 12.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.1126 | -0.35 |
| γ2 | 0.2905 | 0.70 |
| γ3 | -0.4997 | -2.75*** |
| γ4 | 0.7376 | 4.47*** |
| γ5 | -0.6281 | -5.19*** |
Persistence:
0.849
Half-life:
4 days
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