V-Lab
Jiangsu Ankura Intelligent Power Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
41.77%
increased by 3.85%
1 Week
42.88%
increased by 4.96%
1 Month
46.38%
increased by 8.46%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 07:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 2017 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 25 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 25 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.15 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 25-day half-lifev = 4.15 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 13.8424 | 0.87 |
| αARCH | 0.1080 | 5.35*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9724 | 28.30*** |
| νDF | 4.1542 | 1.92* |
0.972
Persistence25d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 13.8424 | 0.87 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1080 | 5.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9724 | 28.30*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1542 | 1.92* |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
25 days
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